On April 10, 2025, the Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) held an online press conference to unveil the results of its latest opinion poll, conducted by Victory Research between March 12 and 18. This fourth poll in a series aimed to assess the current sentiment among Western Cape residents—or "Kaapenaars"—regarding support for a referendum on Cape Independence, the concept of independence itself, and the broader political and demographic factors shaping these views.
With a sample size of 820 adults, fully representative of the province’s demographics, and a margin of error of 3.5%, the poll provides a robust snapshot of public opinion amid a changing political landscape. The results, presented by CIAG co-founder Phil Craig and spokesperson Dr. Joan Swart, reveal both continuity and evolution in the movement’s support base, offering critical insights into its future direction.
A Shifting Context: South Africa and the GNU
The poll was conducted against the backdrop of significant national developments, including the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) following the African National Congress’s (ANC) loss of its outright majority in the 2024 elections. The CIAG sought to understand how these changes, alongside the perceived failure of the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) and global geopolitical shifts, have influenced Western Cape attitudes. When asked whether South Africa is heading in the right or wrong direction, 24% of respondents felt it was on the right path, 68% believed it was going astray, and 8% were undecided. Notably, this marks a more optimistic outlook compared to previous polls, though two-thirds still harbor pessimism about the country’s trajectory.
Kaapenaars’ views on the GNU’s performance provided further context. Only 6% rated it as performing "very well," but 52% said it was doing "quite well," while 18% and 10% judged it as "quite badly" or "very badly," respectively, with 13% undecided. This suggests that, at the time of polling—before any significant GNU crises—two-thirds of those with an opinion viewed it as at least adequate, setting a relatively stable stage for assessing Cape Independence sentiment.
Core Findings: Referendum and Independence Support
The poll’s central questions revolved around support for a referendum on Cape Independence and the idea of independence itself. On the referendum question, 51% of respondents supported holding one, 44% opposed it, and 5% were undecided.
This majority support, though narrower than the 68% recorded in 2023, underscores a persistent desire among Kaapenaars to have their say on the issue. When asked about Cape Independence directly, 43% favored it, 53% opposed it, and 5% remained undecided.
This represents a decline from the 58% support seen in 2023, suggesting that the GNU’s perceived adequacy may have tempered enthusiasm for secession.
A third question probed whether respondents believed Cape Independence would improve their quality of life, with 50% answering yes, 40% no, and 9% undecided.
This near-even split highlights a pragmatic streak among supporters, who see independence as a potential solution to local challenges, even as outright support for secession has softened.
Demographic and Political Breakdown
Delving into the demographics, the poll revealed stark differences across ethnic and linguistic lines. Support for Cape Independence was highest among coloured respondents at 60%, followed by white respondents at 47%, and lowest among black respondents at 16%. By language, Afrikaans speakers led with 63% support—most of whom are coloured—while English speakers dropped to 43% (down from higher levels in 2022 and 2023), and Xhosa speakers stood at 19%. This shift, particularly the decline among English speakers, aligns with the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) recent messaging that it can "save South Africa" through the GNU, a narrative that appears to resonate more with white English-speaking voters than with Afrikaans speakers of all races.
Politically, the poll reaffirmed a long-standing trend: 72% of Cape Independence supporters voted for the DA in 2024, with 11% backing the Patriotic Alliance.
This consistency across all four CIAG polls debunks the notion that election results reflect referendum sentiment, as many independence supporters strategically vote DA for its governance record rather than for pro-independence parties. Among DA voters specifically, 65% believed independence would improve their quality of life, 59% favored a referendum, and 50% supported independence itself, with 46% opposed.
These figures place significant pressure on the DA-led Western Cape government, which has resisted calls for a referendum despite its own voter base’s leanings.
Beyond Independence: Autonomy and Ideology
The poll also explored alternative governance models. A striking 63% of respondents supported additional provincial autonomy, allowing the Western Cape to choose its own policies, while 34% opposed this, and 4% were undecided. Similarly, 57% favored federal autonomy, with 39% against and 4% undecided.
These results signal a strong appetite for greater regional control, even among those not fully sold on independence. However, cultural autonomy—self-governance within cultural groups—garnered less support, with 40% in favor, 54% opposed, and 6% undecided. Here, English speakers were notably skeptical (22% support), while Afrikaans and Xhosa speakers were evenly split at 50%, reflecting diverse views on identity-based governance.
Geopolitical Leanings
In a nod to global dynamics, the poll asked Kaapenaars about their preferred international alignment amid U.S. criticism of South Africa. A clear 63% favored closer ties with the U.S. and the European Union, 26% preferred China and Russia, and 12% were undecided.
This pro-Western tilt, to be highlighted during a CIAG delegation’s upcoming visit to Washington, underscores the province’s distinct geopolitical outlook, potentially bolstering its case for independence on the international stage.
The Road Ahead for CIAG
For the CIAG, these results present both challenges and opportunities. The decline in support since 2023 suggests the GNU’s initial stability has swayed some Kaapenaars, particularly English-speaking DA voters. Yet, the persistent majority favoring a referendum and the strong desire for autonomy indicate that the independence movement retains a solid foundation. Dr. Joan Swart emphasized the poll’s reliability, noting that Victory Research’s track record and the cumulative 3,500 respondents across four polls leave little room for doubt about the movement’s breadth.
Phil Craig highlighted the strategic dilemma: Cape Independence supporters’ loyalty to the DA in elections complicates efforts to force a referendum, emboldening the DA to resist. The CIAG argues that referendums, not elections, are the democratic standard for such questions, citing Scotland’s 2014 vote as precedent. Moving forward, the group plans to monitor the GNU’s fate closely, anticipating a potential surge in support should it falter. In the meantime, the CIAG aims to leverage its polling data to pressure the DA and explore mechanisms—possibly a privately organized referendum, as seen in Italy’s Veneto region in 2014—to amplify Kaapenaars’ voices.
In conclusion, the 2025 poll reveals a Western Cape at a crossroads: cautiously optimistic about the GNU yet resolute in its quest for self-determination. Whether through independence or enhanced autonomy, Kaapenaars are signaling a desire to shape their future—a message the CIAG intends to carry forward with renewed vigor.
