Mozambique, a nation with significant natural resources and regional influence, is facing a dual crisis threatening its economic health and social stability. The first stems from the ongoing terrorist insurrection in the northern Cabo Delgado province; the second arises from post-election violence and deep socio-economic grievances dividing the country. Both crises reveal government vulnerabilities and raise concerns for regional neighbors, particularly South Africa, which has strong economic and security stakes in Mozambique’s stability.
This crisis holds global relevance due to Mozambique’s strategic role as an energy producer and exporter crucial to LNG markets. Instability disrupts supply chains, affects global commodity prices, and strains humanitarian resources. For South Africa, the stakes are higher: shared economic ties and regional security mean that unrest impacts its economy and safety. A destabilized Mozambique could increase migration flows and foster transnational crime that spreads across borders.
The Northern Insurgency
Since 2017, Cabo Delgado has been the center of a violent insurgency led by Ansar al-Sunna, locally known as al-Shabab (unrelated to the Somali group). With about 160 to 200 fighters, the insurgents have paralyzed the region. Attacks have forced major corporations, including TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil, to suspend operations, depriving Mozambique of foreign capital, income, and jobs.
More than a million people have been displaced, worsening poverty and creating cycles of hardship. Early attempts to quell the violence through private military contractors, including the Wagner Group and Dyck Advisory Group, failed due to fragmented command and poor coordination. Stability improved only with the intervention of Rwandan forces and SADC troops, which briefly reduced violence between 2022 and 2023.
However, these gains were undermined by the cost of military interventions. The 2024 withdrawal of SADC forces left a power vacuum, exploited by insurgents. The conflict has claimed over 4,000 lives since 2017 and shows no signs of abating without comprehensive military and socio-economic strategies. Organized crime networks fuel the insurgency by smuggling arms, trafficking people, and generating revenue through illicit trades in gemstones and timber. These operations finance insurgent activities, while ideology serves as a recruitment tool targeting disenfranchised youth.
Post-Election Violence and Its Implications
Post-election violence after the October 2024 presidential elections, won by Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party, is the second major threat. Allegations of electoral fraud and deep political dissatisfaction sparked widespread protests and severe crackdowns. Reports indicate over 20 people killed, hundreds injured, and many detained as unrest swept across cities and rural areas. Heavy-handed government responses have fueled resentment and escalated tensions.
This violence exacerbates economic and social inequalities, disrupting daily life, businesses, and Mozambique's international image, threatening much-needed foreign investment. The unrest reveals deeper systemic issues—government corruption, ineffective policies, and exclusionary development—that worsen the economic divide between the north and south. Extremist groups could exploit public discontent, using ideology as a front for recruitment and operational expansion. Economic consequences include disrupted local and international business, supply chain issues, higher insurance costs, and diverted government resources for damage control. Investor confidence falters as risks escalate, jeopardizing long-term projects and partnerships.
A Cautionary Tale for South Africa
South Africa is not immune to the fallout from Mozambique’s crises. South African companies with investments there are already affected, while an influx of displaced people strains an overburdened immigration system and stokes xenophobic tensions. South Africa’s association with terrorism funding and harboring extremist-linked individuals compounds its security challenges.
Mozambique’s plight illustrates that government corruption, poor economic policies, and failure to address inequalities create fertile ground for resistance and terrorism. The ANC, as South Africa’s dominant party, must heed these lessons. Ignoring disenfranchised groups invites opportunistic actors and fuels unrest that is costly and difficult to suppress.
Final Words
When public resistance escalates into violence and terrorism takes hold, reversing the damage is formidable. Mozambique’s situation is a stark reminder that no nation, especially one as regionally significant as South Africa, can afford to overlook socio-economic divides and governance failures. Addressing these challenges is not just a moral imperative but a strategic necessity for national and regional stability.
* Afrikaanse weergawe gepubliseer in Maroela Media.
