A cornerstone of any successful independence movement is the combination of two elements: a clear public mandate for self-determination and the recognition of the international community. Without both, the path to statehood remains precarious. This is why reports suggesting that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is poised to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state carry weight—not just for the people of Somaliland but for regions like the Western Cape, where calls for independence are growing louder.
Somaliland as a Case Study in Self-Determination
Somaliland, located in the Horn of Africa, declared independence from Somalia in 1991 following the collapse of Somalia’s central government. Over the past three decades, it has developed a relatively stable, democratic political system with functioning institutions and peaceful transitions of power. This stands in stark contrast to the turmoil in Somalia, plagued by internal conflict, weak governance, and extremism. Despite its stability and separate governance, Somaliland remains unrecognized internationally, preventing it from accessing critical resources and full participation in the global system. Trump’s recognition of Somaliland could change that, providing a lifeline for economic development and political legitimacy.
This situation underscores a broader principle: regions with functional governance and public support for independence should not be indefinitely tethered to states unable or unwilling to provide economic stability or protect minority rights.
Parallels Between Somaliland and the Western Cape
The Western Cape shares striking similarities with Somaliland, albeit in a different socio-political and economic context. The province consistently outperforms the rest of South Africa on key indicators like governance, education, health, and economic growth. Yet, as part of South Africa, it is burdened by national policies shaped by a centralized government that prioritizes political agendas over functionality and progress.
South Africa’s economic and social decline—marked by rampant corruption, failing infrastructure, and poor public services—has deeply frustrated Western Cape residents. Many feel that the province's potential is stifled by its inclusion in a larger failing state. Politically, the Western Cape has always voted against the ruling African National Congress (ANC), making it an ideological outlier in the country. Like Somaliland, it finds itself in a political and economic arrangement that serves neither its aspirations nor its interests.
What Somaliland’s Recognition Could Mean for Cape Independence
Trump’s recognition of Somaliland would send a clear message to the global community: functional governance, popular support for independence, and a track record of stability are strong foundations for statehood. This principle resonates deeply with the Western Cape. If Somaliland can demonstrate that a stable, democratic entity should be recognized even without unanimous international approval, it sets a precedent for other regions seeking independence, especially those where public opinion strongly supports the move.
For the Western Cape, international recognition would be a critical step in achieving independence. It would validate the region's efforts to pursue self-determination and open doors to critical partnerships with Western nations that align more closely with the province’s values and trade interests.
The Geopolitical Divide
Somaliland’s case also highlights the importance of geopolitical alignment. South Africa’s increasing alignment with BRICS nations and a departure from traditional Western allies further emphasizes the Western Cape’s distinct identity. While South Africa cozies up to countries like Russia and China, the Western Cape maintains closer economic, cultural, and political ties to the West. This divergence is yet another indicator that the province’s interests are not aligned with the national government’s trajectory.
A Precedent for the Western Cape
Trump’s recognition of Somaliland has broader implications for independence movements globally, especially those rooted in democratic principles and economic pragmatism. For the Western Cape, it offers a blueprint: demonstrate good governance, secure a public mandate, and build alliances with international actors who prioritize stability and functionality over rigid adherence to outdated territorial boundaries.
As the Western Cape charts its course, it must learn from Somaliland’s successes and struggles. The province already has the democratic mandate to reject the status quo; what it now needs is the international backing that could turn the idea of independence into a reality.
By taking inspiration from Somaliland’s perseverance and the principles underpinning its potential recognition, the Western Cape can strengthen its case for independence—not just as a moral imperative but as a practical solution for its people. If Trump’s decision can validate Somaliland’s claim to statehood, there is every reason to believe the same logic applies to the Western Cape.
* Article originally published in the Cape Argus, December 2, 2024.
