The Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) has conducted a thorough investigation into the 2024 national and provincial elections and their significance for the Cape Independence movement. The investigation was jointly conducted by Dr. Joan Swart and Phil Craig. The results are available in white paper which will be published this week.
The media and other interested parties are invited to attend an online briefing at 19h30 on Wednesday 17 July. Questions will be invited at the end of the briefing and the media will be given priority. Use this link to join the briefing.
The main findings were:
- Election were a contest between two opposing ideologies - the African Nationalists (ANC / MK / EFF) and the Non-racial free marketeers (MPC)
- African nationalists won convincingly with 64.3% of vote
- Electorate is radicalising and moving away from the centre
- Race played a decisive role in the election
- Black voters overwhelmingly endorsed African nationalism with 86.6% voting either ANC, MK, or EFF. Only 4.3% of black voters voted DA.
- Ethnic minorities overwhelmingly rejected African nationalism with only 3.7% voting ANC, MK, or EFF. 69.1% of ethnic minorities voted DA.
- MK split the African nationalist vote forcing the ANC into forming a coalition government.
- The DA recovered some of the vote share it lost in 2019, but received less actual votes than in the last two elections.
- The GNU offers hope to South Africans but will need to overcome the deep ideological divide which runs through South African politics.
- The CIAG will follow a policy of ‘hope for the best, but plan for the worst’.
In the Western Cape
- Ideological divide between Western Cape and Rest of SA remains stark
- DA received 53.1% of vote in WC compared to 17.4% in remainder of SA
- MPC received 56.7% of vote in WC compared to 24.9% in remainder of SA
- ANC / MK / EFF received 28.0% of vote in WC compared to 69.4% in remainder of SA
- DA is unlikely to retain its provincial majority in medium term because:
- Black population is rapidly increasing and only 4.3% are voting DA
- DA lost its majority amongst coloured voters for first time since 2009, 52.6% voted against DA
- White semigration has effectively kept the DA in power. DA achieved a majority of 104k votes whilst 300k white semigrants relocated to WC between 2011 and 2022
Cape Independence
- Ideological divide and need for Cape Independence remains
- Election outcomes correlate closely with CIAG’s August 2023 polling
- Substantial support for Cape Independence remains but Cape Independence supporters overwhelmingly voted DA
- Referendum Party and Freedom Front Plus were unable to convince DA voters to vote against DA to advance Cape Independence
- DA are not going to call a referendum on Cape Independence
- CIAG will now investigate the potential of holding a private referendum for all 3.2m Western Cape voters at the appropriate time.
- Veneto, a province in Italy, successfully held such a referendum in 2014 and the CIAG is in contact with the team who organised that referendum.
- CIAG believes GNU must be given a chance to succeed, however its long-term prospects of negating the need for Cape Independence are very poor.
- Cape Independence movement must use this time to strengthen the depth of support for Cape Independence and prepare for a referendum.
A copy of the white paper can be downloaded using this link.
RELEASE DATE: 16 July 2024
MEDIA ENQUIRIES:
Dr. Joan Swart
Phil Craig
